{
  "name": "World Awareness Benchmark",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "description": "Tests whether AI agents accurately know current world state. Ground truth from prediction markets.",
  "date": "2026-04-02",
  "source": "SimpleFunctions World Model \u2014 9,706 markets, calibrated by real money",
  "scoring": {
    "exact_match": 2,
    "correct_direction": 1,
    "wrong_or_refused": 0,
    "max_score": 88
  },
  "categories": [
    "Markets",
    "Energy",
    "Economy",
    "Elections",
    "Geopolitical"
  ],
  "question_count": 44,
  "questions": [
    {
      "id": "geo-001",
      "question": "What is the SF Geopolitical Risk Index score (0-100)?",
      "category": "Geopolitical",
      "ground_truth": 62,
      "unit": "score_0_100",
      "source": "SF Index",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "geo-002",
      "question": "What is the market-implied probability of Will U.S. imports from Iran for 2026 be greater than $5M??",
      "category": "Geopolitical",
      "ground_truth": 24,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Will U.S. imports from Iran for 2026 be greater than $5M?",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "geo-003",
      "question": "What is the prediction market price for: Iran nuclear test before 2027??",
      "category": "Geopolitical",
      "ground_truth": 9,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Iran nuclear test before 2027?",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "geo-004",
      "question": "What probability does the prediction market assign to: Taiwan invasion?",
      "category": "Geopolitical",
      "ground_truth": 50,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Taiwan invasion",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "geo-005",
      "question": "What is the market price for: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026??",
      "category": "Geopolitical",
      "ground_truth": 30,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "geo-006",
      "question": "Is the SF Geopolitical Risk Index above or below 50?",
      "category": "Geopolitical",
      "ground_truth": "above",
      "unit": "direction",
      "source": "SF Index",
      "tolerance": 0,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "geo-007",
      "question": "What is the current SF market uncertainty score (0-100)?",
      "category": "Geopolitical",
      "ground_truth": 22,
      "unit": "score_0_100",
      "source": "SF Index",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "geo-008",
      "question": "What is the current SF market momentum (-1 to +1)?",
      "category": "Geopolitical",
      "ground_truth": 0.06,
      "unit": "momentum",
      "source": "SF Index",
      "tolerance": 0.1,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "geo-009",
      "question": "What is the current price of 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?' on prediction markets?",
      "category": "Geopolitical",
      "ground_truth": 10,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "geo-010",
      "question": "What is the prediction market probability for 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?'?",
      "category": "Geopolitical",
      "ground_truth": 11,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "eco-011",
      "question": "What is the prediction market probability of a US recession in 2026?",
      "category": "Economy",
      "ground_truth": 29,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "eco-012",
      "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Fed rate cut by...?: April Meeting?",
      "category": "Economy",
      "ground_truth": 1,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Fed rate cut by...?: April Meeting",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "eco-013",
      "question": "What is the current SPY price?",
      "category": "Economy",
      "ground_truth": 655.13,
      "unit": "usd",
      "source": "SPY via Databento",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "eco-014",
      "question": "What is SPY's daily percentage change?",
      "category": "Economy",
      "ground_truth": 0.81,
      "unit": "percent",
      "source": "SPY via Databento",
      "tolerance": 0.5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "eco-015",
      "question": "What is the current VIX proxy (VIXY) price?",
      "category": "Economy",
      "ground_truth": 33.54,
      "unit": "usd",
      "source": "VIXY via Databento",
      "tolerance": 2,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "eco-016",
      "question": "What is the current TLT (20Y Treasury) price?",
      "category": "Economy",
      "ground_truth": 86.45,
      "unit": "usd",
      "source": "TLT via Databento",
      "tolerance": 2,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "eco-017",
      "question": "What is the market price for 'Fed decision in April?: 50+ bps decrease'?",
      "category": "Economy",
      "ground_truth": 0,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Fed decision in April?: 50+ bps decrease",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "eco-018",
      "question": "What is the market price for 'Fed decision in April?: No change'?",
      "category": "Economy",
      "ground_truth": 98,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Fed decision in April?: No change",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "eco-019",
      "question": "What is the SF Uncertainty Index (0-100)?",
      "category": "Economy",
      "ground_truth": 22,
      "unit": "score_0_100",
      "source": "SF Index",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "eco-020",
      "question": "Is the SF market momentum positive or negative?",
      "category": "Economy",
      "ground_truth": "positive",
      "unit": "direction",
      "source": "SF Index",
      "tolerance": 0,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "ene-021",
      "question": "What is the current oil ETF (USO) price?",
      "category": "Energy",
      "ground_truth": 123.39,
      "unit": "usd",
      "source": "USO via Databento",
      "tolerance": 3,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "ene-022",
      "question": "What is oil's daily percentage change?",
      "category": "Energy",
      "ground_truth": -2.7,
      "unit": "percent",
      "source": "USO via Databento",
      "tolerance": 0.5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "ene-023",
      "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Oil price?",
      "category": "Energy",
      "ground_truth": 50,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Oil price",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "ene-024",
      "question": "What is the prediction market price for 'EPL \u2013 Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Brentford'?",
      "category": "Energy",
      "ground_truth": 1,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "EPL \u2013 Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Brentford",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "ene-025",
      "question": "What is the prediction market price for 'Oil'?",
      "category": "Energy",
      "ground_truth": 123.39,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Oil",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "ene-026",
      "question": "What is the prediction market price for 'Will average **gas prices** be above $4.080?'?",
      "category": "Energy",
      "ground_truth": 55,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.080?",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "ene-027",
      "question": "Is oil (USO) up or down today?",
      "category": "Energy",
      "ground_truth": "down",
      "unit": "direction",
      "source": "USO",
      "tolerance": 0,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "ele-028",
      "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Presidential Election Winner 2028: LeBron James?",
      "category": "Elections",
      "ground_truth": 1,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Presidential Election Winner 2028: LeBron James",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "ele-029",
      "question": "What is the market price for 'Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Mike Pence'?",
      "category": "Elections",
      "ground_truth": 1,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Mike Pence",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "ele-030",
      "question": "What is the market price for 'Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Raphael Warnock'?",
      "category": "Elections",
      "ground_truth": 1,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Raphael Warnock",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "ele-031",
      "question": "What is the market price for 'Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Jon Ossoff'?",
      "category": "Elections",
      "ground_truth": 5,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Jon Ossoff",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "ele-032",
      "question": "What is the market price for 'Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Pam Bondi'?",
      "category": "Elections",
      "ground_truth": 100,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Pam Bondi",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "mar-033",
      "question": "What is the current gold ETF (GLD) price?",
      "category": "Markets",
      "ground_truth": 436.88,
      "unit": "usd",
      "source": "GLD via Databento",
      "tolerance": 3,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "mar-034",
      "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Bitcoin price on April 3?: <58,000?",
      "category": "Markets",
      "ground_truth": 0,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Bitcoin price on April 3?: <58,000",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "mar-035",
      "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Ethereum price on April 3?: >2,400?",
      "category": "Markets",
      "ground_truth": 0,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Ethereum price on April 3?: >2,400",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "mar-036",
      "question": "What is the prediction market price for 'What will happen before GTA VI?: Bitcoin hits $1m'?",
      "category": "Markets",
      "ground_truth": 49,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "What will happen before GTA VI?: Bitcoin hits $1m",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "mar-037",
      "question": "What is the prediction market price for 'Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?'?",
      "category": "Markets",
      "ground_truth": 5,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "mar-038",
      "question": "What is the prediction market price for 'Crypto Twitter mindshare ATH by March 31, 2026?: Sisyphus'?",
      "category": "Markets",
      "ground_truth": 100,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Crypto Twitter mindshare ATH by March 31, 2026?: Sisyphus",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "mar-039",
      "question": "What is the market price for 'Largest Company end of June?: Apple'?",
      "category": "Markets",
      "ground_truth": 9,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Largest Company end of June?: Apple",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "mar-040",
      "question": "What is the market price for 'Will USD.AI launch a token by ___ ?: April 30, 2026'?",
      "category": "Markets",
      "ground_truth": 97,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Will USD.AI launch a token by ___ ?: April 30, 2026",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "mar-041",
      "question": "What is the market price for 'USD.AI FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M'?",
      "category": "Markets",
      "ground_truth": 2,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "USD.AI FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "mar-042",
      "question": "What is the current market price for 'Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls '?",
      "category": "Markets",
      "ground_truth": 100,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls ",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "mar-043",
      "question": "What is the current market price for 'Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls '?",
      "category": "Markets",
      "ground_truth": 97,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls ",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    },
    {
      "id": "mar-044",
      "question": "What is the current market price for 'Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor'?",
      "category": "Markets",
      "ground_truth": 15,
      "unit": "percent_cents",
      "source": "Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor",
      "tolerance": 5,
      "date": "2026-04-02"
    }
  ]
}