Daily Papers

Low-Rank Adaptive Residual Connections (LARC) give a frozen model a compact numerical state that can learn from feedback. The map h+BAh adds a low-rank correction to a hidden representation. A slow state ρ learns starting factors across tasks; a private fast state Φ copies them, changes with feedback, and resets to the trained initialization. This report specifies an input-side realization of the numerical policy carrier in Memory-Mediated Learning Architecture and examines its factor-space dynamics and learning lifetime. We study a rank-4 input residual with 12,288 trainable parameters on a frozen MiniCPM5-1B-SFT substrate. In a four-candidate program-selection task, two feedback-gradient steps reduce expected query execution error by 24.65 and 36.65 percentage points relative to resetting to the respective trained static and post-adaptation initializations. These development results cover 16 parameter groups and three paired training seeds. A direct support-loss selection rule is much more accurate, reaching 0.78125% error. In a repository-balanced chronological replay of public continuous-integration jobs, retaining online updates raises half-Brier loss from 0.1274 to 0.1808. A fixed follow-up intervention records same-batch non-descent and inconsistent future benefit from shrinking updates. Together, the algebra and measurements distinguish residual capacity, adaptation relative to a starting point, and usefulness on later decisions.

In hybrid forecasting, a language model is often one of several available signals. A system may already have a market, crowd, or statistical forecast and must decide whether the model adds useful information or should be ignored. The relevant target is therefore not standalone model accuracy, but relative competence, defined as the model's marginal value beyond the available external forecast. Under Brier loss, we characterize when model disagreement can improve an external forecast and derive the gain from using domain-specific rather than global pooling weights. We then introduce a competence gate that estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, the gate improves the main external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and significantly outperforms global forecast combinations. The gain remains significant under leakage controls and against a leakage-safe time-series prior on the pooled structured set, with separate evidence on FRED. In contrast, the gate gives no significant improvement on the official ForecastBench market subset, where it largely defers to the market. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence does not reliably identify when the model outperforms the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supports better abstention decisions. These results provide a practical approach for selective model use based on measured marginal value.

Model calibration is essential for ensuring that the predictions of deep neural networks accurately reflect true probabilities in real-world classification tasks. However, deep networks often produce over-confident or under-confident predictions, leading to miscalibration. Various methods have been proposed to address this issue by designing effective loss functions for calibration, such as focal loss. In this paper, we analyze its effectiveness and provide a unified loss framework of focal loss and its variants, where we mainly attribute their superiority in model calibration to the loss weighting factor that estimates sample-wise uncertainty. Based on our analysis, existing loss functions fail to achieve optimal calibration performance due to two main issues: including misalignment during optimization and insufficient precision in uncertainty estimation. Specifically, focal loss cannot align sample uncertainty with gradient scaling and the single logit cannot indicate the uncertainty. To address these issues, we reformulate the optimization from the perspective of gradients, which focuses on uncertain samples. Meanwhile, we propose using the Brier Score as the loss weight factor, which provides a more accurate uncertainty estimation via all the logits. Extensive experiments on various models and datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance.