| { |
| "name": "World Awareness Benchmark", |
| "version": "1.0.0", |
| "description": "Tests whether AI agents accurately know current world state. Ground truth from prediction markets.", |
| "date": "2026-04-02", |
| "source": "SimpleFunctions World Model \u2014 9,706 markets, calibrated by real money", |
| "scoring": { |
| "exact_match": 2, |
| "correct_direction": 1, |
| "wrong_or_refused": 0, |
| "max_score": 88 |
| }, |
| "categories": [ |
| "Markets", |
| "Energy", |
| "Economy", |
| "Elections", |
| "Geopolitical" |
| ], |
| "question_count": 44, |
| "questions": [ |
| { |
| "id": "geo-001", |
| "question": "What is the SF Geopolitical Risk Index score (0-100)?", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 62, |
| "unit": "score_0_100", |
| "source": "SF Index", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-002", |
| "question": "What is the market-implied probability of Will U.S. imports from Iran for 2026 be greater than $5M??", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 24, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will U.S. imports from Iran for 2026 be greater than $5M?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-003", |
| "question": "What is the prediction market price for: Iran nuclear test before 2027??", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 9, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Iran nuclear test before 2027?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-004", |
| "question": "What probability does the prediction market assign to: Taiwan invasion?", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 50, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Taiwan invasion", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-005", |
| "question": "What is the market price for: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026??", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 30, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-006", |
| "question": "Is the SF Geopolitical Risk Index above or below 50?", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": "above", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "SF Index", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-007", |
| "question": "What is the current SF market uncertainty score (0-100)?", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 22, |
| "unit": "score_0_100", |
| "source": "SF Index", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-008", |
| "question": "What is the current SF market momentum (-1 to +1)?", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 0.06, |
| "unit": "momentum", |
| "source": "SF Index", |
| "tolerance": 0.1, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-009", |
| "question": "What is the current price of 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?' on prediction markets?", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 10, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-010", |
| "question": "What is the prediction market probability for 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?'?", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 11, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-011", |
| "question": "What is the prediction market probability of a US recession in 2026?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 29, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-012", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Fed rate cut by...?: April Meeting?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 1, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Fed rate cut by...?: April Meeting", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-013", |
| "question": "What is the current SPY price?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 655.13, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "SPY via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-014", |
| "question": "What is SPY's daily percentage change?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 0.81, |
| "unit": "percent", |
| "source": "SPY via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 0.5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-015", |
| "question": "What is the current VIX proxy (VIXY) price?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 33.54, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "VIXY via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 2, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-016", |
| "question": "What is the current TLT (20Y Treasury) price?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 86.45, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "TLT via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 2, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-017", |
| "question": "What is the market price for 'Fed decision in April?: 50+ bps decrease'?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 0, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Fed decision in April?: 50+ bps decrease", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-018", |
| "question": "What is the market price for 'Fed decision in April?: No change'?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 98, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Fed decision in April?: No change", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-019", |
| "question": "What is the SF Uncertainty Index (0-100)?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 22, |
| "unit": "score_0_100", |
| "source": "SF Index", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-020", |
| "question": "Is the SF market momentum positive or negative?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": "positive", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "SF Index", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "ene-021", |
| "question": "What is the current oil ETF (USO) price?", |
| "category": "Energy", |
| "ground_truth": 123.39, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "USO via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 3, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "ene-022", |
| "question": "What is oil's daily percentage change?", |
| "category": "Energy", |
| "ground_truth": -2.7, |
| "unit": "percent", |
| "source": "USO via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 0.5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "ene-023", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Oil price?", |
| "category": "Energy", |
| "ground_truth": 50, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Oil price", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "ene-024", |
| "question": "What is the prediction market price for 'EPL \u2013 Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Brentford'?", |
| "category": "Energy", |
| "ground_truth": 1, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "EPL \u2013 Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Brentford", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "ene-025", |
| "question": "What is the prediction market price for 'Oil'?", |
| "category": "Energy", |
| "ground_truth": 123.39, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Oil", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "ene-026", |
| "question": "What is the prediction market price for 'Will average **gas prices** be above $4.080?'?", |
| "category": "Energy", |
| "ground_truth": 55, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.080?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "ene-027", |
| "question": "Is oil (USO) up or down today?", |
| "category": "Energy", |
| "ground_truth": "down", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "USO", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "ele-028", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Presidential Election Winner 2028: LeBron James?", |
| "category": "Elections", |
| "ground_truth": 1, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Presidential Election Winner 2028: LeBron James", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "ele-029", |
| "question": "What is the market price for 'Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Mike Pence'?", |
| "category": "Elections", |
| "ground_truth": 1, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Mike Pence", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "ele-030", |
| "question": "What is the market price for 'Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Raphael Warnock'?", |
| "category": "Elections", |
| "ground_truth": 1, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Raphael Warnock", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "ele-031", |
| "question": "What is the market price for 'Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Jon Ossoff'?", |
| "category": "Elections", |
| "ground_truth": 5, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Jon Ossoff", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "ele-032", |
| "question": "What is the market price for 'Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Pam Bondi'?", |
| "category": "Elections", |
| "ground_truth": 100, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Pam Bondi", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-033", |
| "question": "What is the current gold ETF (GLD) price?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 436.88, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "GLD via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 3, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-034", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Bitcoin price on April 3?: <58,000?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 0, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Bitcoin price on April 3?: <58,000", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-035", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Ethereum price on April 3?: >2,400?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 0, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Ethereum price on April 3?: >2,400", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-036", |
| "question": "What is the prediction market price for 'What will happen before GTA VI?: Bitcoin hits $1m'?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 49, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "What will happen before GTA VI?: Bitcoin hits $1m", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-037", |
| "question": "What is the prediction market price for 'Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?'?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 5, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-038", |
| "question": "What is the prediction market price for 'Crypto Twitter mindshare ATH by March 31, 2026?: Sisyphus'?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 100, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Crypto Twitter mindshare ATH by March 31, 2026?: Sisyphus", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-039", |
| "question": "What is the market price for 'Largest Company end of June?: Apple'?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 9, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Largest Company end of June?: Apple", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-040", |
| "question": "What is the market price for 'Will USD.AI launch a token by ___ ?: April 30, 2026'?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 97, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will USD.AI launch a token by ___ ?: April 30, 2026", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-041", |
| "question": "What is the market price for 'USD.AI FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M'?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 2, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "USD.AI FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-042", |
| "question": "What is the current market price for 'Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls '?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 100, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls ", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-043", |
| "question": "What is the current market price for 'Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls '?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 97, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls ", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-044", |
| "question": "What is the current market price for 'Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor'?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 15, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-04-02" |
| } |
| ] |
| } |
